Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Futcoin Democracy

Futcoin Democracy

Ganga Prasad Rao

Email: gprasadrao@hotmail.com
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Blog: gprasadrao.blogspot.com
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Introduction
A Democratic society consists of nominally equal citizens who participate together to bring about an incentive- and performance-compatible equitable opportunity to all members of the society. However, and in practice, Democracy has been subverted by an entrenched few, and the role of the individual citizen has been increasingly marginalized. Caught in a 'democratic trap' that institutionalizes corruption by the very representatives elected by them, and which panders to them minimal, short-term monetary gains for the largest of losses across decades, Citizen-groups and Democracy organizations have actively sought to contain the malaise and bring about genuine reform that empowers citizens and pre-empts the nefarious designs of the politicians. In this blog, I broach a novel proposal – a modification to the electoral-cum-governance system that is rooted in Finance and which has the potential to reverse the tide back in favor of Citizens.

The choice between Consumption today, versus reforming, saving and investing for a tomorrow, is a recurrent theme in all societies. The appreciation of the Present (PV) to the Future (FV), and the reduction of a Future FV to the Present PV, are widely-known concepts familiar to every adult member of the Society. Though, common parlance in Finance and Economics, the concept is sufficiently general to be applicable to various other contexts, albeit less quantitatively. A PV-based society is necessarily a Consumerist society that reduces or discounts futures and accepts externalities in the Commons to raise standards of living of the people. An FV-based society, however, leverages an idealistic vision of the Future to guide policies in the Present. FV-based valuation, -criteria, and -decision making are just as valid, and in fact even preferable in many collective, inter-temporal
policies, decisions and investments that have the potential to otherwise cause irreversible damage to the Future. Since Democracy is about societal decisions that impact upon the collective future of its member-citizens, an FV-based electoral-cum-governance system is as necessary as it is desirable.

A Conceptual Representation of Democratic Voting or The Mechanics of Group Preference ElicitationConceive of a 'Group Sustainable FV Sphere - Group Closed Cycle PV Sphere' in the opposite of 'Individual Wealth-Achievements-Ideas-Injustices-Aspirations FV Sphere – Individual Issues, Demand & Expectations, IDE, (Monetary PV) Sphere'. The Group defines its future opportunities by what is sustainable in the long, but limits its present to what is technically and economically afforded by the Closed Cycle Industry-led growth. The Individual FV Sphere is defined by the Voters' cumulated (monetary and non-monetary) Wealth, Achievements, Ideas, Injustices (suffered) and Aspirations, WAIIA Sphere, while the Individual PV Sphere concerns issues, demands and expectations given past experiences and current expectations. Those PV expectations are also limited to what can be afforded given the Voter's (inter-life) asset allocation and the consequent monetary constraints as well as the prevailing set of prices.

Given Individual and Group FV and PV Spheres, democratic voting is both the volunteering of 'keys' from the
Individual WAIIA repository, and an expression of personal preferences and choices in the many aspects of social life. Those personal choices, made as part of a collective, define a common 'Group FV Opportunities – Group PV Demands' space – that in turn provide politicians a guide to formulate programs and policies that focus upon public priorities to adopt and obtain the Citizen Group the resolutions and the futures they seek. While it may be egalitarian to wistfully claim all citizens are strictly equal under the eyes of the law, the weight carried by any individual voting member of the society in elections reflects his or her contribution to the Group's 'FV Opportunities - PV Demands' Sphere. That contribution, in turn, could be modeled as determined by the member's social status and his or her set of personal diligences. Status, not to be confused with Caste hierarchy, could be likened to both, the depth of one's cultural roots, and the breadth of one's social reach. (Informally, the former is secured either by acquiring fixed assets such as Gold or Land from (permanent) inhabitants of the land, or by offering 'gifts' to those above whom one enters a society, and the latter by recognising intellectual equals and superiors in the broad society with a sliver of one's FV). Personal diligences is the set of the various legal and financial formalities, as well as ethical, social and moral tests and lessons necessary to make principled, sustainable and defensible judgements concerning the future. Together, Status and Diligence, act as lenses that project the choices made by Citizens (the Volunteered FV keys and the PV Demands) on to the 'Group FV Opportunities – Group PV Demands Sphere' and help Politicians ring-fence a sustainable, collective future for the Group. Specifically, the dual-lenses of Status and Diligence project the 'keys' in the multitudes of 'Individual WAIIA FV-PV IDE Sphere' on to a 'Group FV Opportunities-Group PV IDE 'set'. Post-election, this set represents an opportunity for Politicians, Technology-suppliers, Resource-owners, Financiers and Special Interest groups, to come together and simultaneously ring-fence a 'pareto space' in the Group Sustainable FV Sphere to operate upon and 'PV Hasten' to the present as growth strategies that stimulate economic activity and raise the standards of living of the Citizen Group.

PV Hastening through the Governance Group
During Government formation, stakeholders in the Governance Group – a group of Politicians, Financiers, Technology-Suppliers, Resource-owners and Special Interests - 'PV Hasten' the 'FV Economic Opportunity Set - FV Moon' to the present using a 'Gold Wrongs and Injustices Repository-Fractal', GWIRF. The GWIRF, with cumulative memory of the unresolved, and uncompensated wrongs upon individuals, government, businesses and various entities across the years, feeds, and in its opposite, exploits volatility in Gold to permit the PV Monetization of the 'Group Sustainable FV' pot (in practice, the monetization of FV Bonds against Gold) and thus 'transform' the 'FV Moon' to a 'PV Moon' and budget it for a take-off in the PV Economy. For example, consider Magnetic Levitation-based transportation, yet unsustainable due carbon externalities and land-related issues. Post the Governance Group-endorsed land-policy reform and upon an expert-advised participation in the Carbon permits market, the technology turns sustainable, enters the 'Group Sustainable FV Sphere', and thereafter, is available to be 'PV Hastened' to the present by the Governance Group in to the 'Public Commercial Sphere'.

The process of post-election, pre-government strategy formation centres as much around rents accruing to stakeholders (the Governance Group) as it does around the authority vested to influence them. Aggregate rents to stakeholders during PV Hastening are limited by what is FV-sustainable, thus forcing a 'Rents ZS' within the Governance group. The power to influence Governance policy and strategies derives, ultimately, from the Citizen group and the monopolistic/strategic/financial power wielded by members of the Governance group.)

Theory to Practice: Cause Bonds, Futcoin-Voting and Governance Circles
The Group Sustainable FV Sphere may be enlarged in various ways that fall in to either Equity or Efficiency categories. Individual ideas and injustices, as well as aspirations, could drive new social causes. These 'Causes', which may involve large and long social-justice programs or various ESH enhancements to the public infrastructure and the Commons, must yet be formally launched and funded. Should there be widespread support for the Causes, the same are picked upon in the 'Salience rounds' undertaken by politicians prior elections and adopted in to Party agenda. Post elections, the Government (or the Governance Group) proposes (even) an Equity-cum-FV-justified Monetary Quantitative Easing, QE, to generate funds to cover the issue of 'Cause Bonds'. Revenues from sale of Cause Bonds fund corrective/incremental policies and programs targeted at achieving the Causes.

Cause Bonds are a special category of debt-instruments whose Cause is socially-endorsed. The societal WTP for the Causes, as elicited from the masses, permits granting 'minimum assured returns' to Cause Bonds due the
guaranteed creation of a WTP-dependent FV. Similarly, on account widespread support (and willingness to pay) for the underlying Causes, and because their NAVs are Divisia-linked to outcomes, these 'FV-creating', Cause-specific instruments, conceptually, should obtain a 'social monetary return' superior to Gold; returns to 'FV-constant' Gold being the price for the perpetuation of sustainable technologies. Cause Bonds, though issued as debt-instruments, turn assets when they create FV sufficient to pay-off the principal and yet retain a gain that represents an expansion of the societal pie.

There are many FV instruments in the financial markets (RDs, certain Insurance policies), but they are not immediately adaptable to eliciting Future Values in Democratic elections. Cause Bonds, on the other hand, due their broad social impact, their broad-based endorsement, and FV-creating potential, are an ideal proxy to represent the Citizen Group PV-IDE set. Cause Bonds then represent the desired, but as yet unachieved futures to secure which citizens volunteer their FV WAIIA Sphere in Democratic elections. Issued as zero-coupon, largely untraded instruments, the value of Cause Bonds appreciate in proportion to a 'Divisia Progress Index' constructed from multiple variables - quantitative variables that define interim and final outcomes by which the Cause is measured. Should these interim objectives be met, the Cause Bond NAV rises with the value of the Divisia Index as pre-defined at bond-issue. Democracy Bonds, issued to support and further democracy in the nation, is an example of a Cause Bond as are Closed Cycle bonds meant to improve the efficiency of energy- and material cycle. In the context of Democracy Cause Bonds, the Divisia index would reflect such factors as Voter diligence, Voter education, Candidate qualifications, Transparency, Accountability, Electoral Funding, Choice and Competition, pre-and post-electoral Corruption, Governance performance etc. Similarly, the Divisia index for CC Bonds would reflect the efficiency of energy and material production & -transportation, environmental externalities, value-added, material intensity of use, recycling and waste generation, to name a few. A Divisia index that combines these factors quantitatively, would appreciate only if the fundamentals of Democracy/CC Economy grew stronger. Tied to the Divisia, the NAV of Democracy/CC Bonds too would then rise to reflect the progress in the achievement of the Cause.

Despite their desirable properties, Cause Bonds, in themselves, do not obtain us the handle we need to improve Democracy. One needs an instrument derived from Cause Bonds that is assignable online to various democratic and special interests as a means to endow them with the power to proxy judge important social causes on behalf citizens. Toward this end, consider Futcoins – a debt-based 'future currency' issued upon Cause Bonds that may be leveraged gainfully in democratic elections. The concept is simple, albeit novel. Given Cause Bonds have no coupons and are held untraded, it is possible to exploit its deterministic, if latent NAV appreciation, and outcome-conditional future appreciation to issue a unique class of currency - Futcoins. Futcoins are 'future currency' issued conditional to the creation of Cause Bonds and the expected achievement of its goals. They represent the monetary increment to the Group Sustainable FV from the probabilistically expected achievement of the Cause at a future date. Issued to owners of Cause Bonds who may validly claim to have foregone returns from Bond volatility and appreciation, Futcoins endow their owners with 'de facto' power to judge policies focused on the Cause. They may be deemed a debt-based, variable-value 'future currency', the use of which obligates the society to pursue policies that obtain the larger social pie envisioned by the Cause Bonds. Futcoins provide a financially defensible means of trading on differing expectations of the success of a program. FutCoin value would fluctuate with the likelihood of the achievement of the Cause (and the projected maturity date, if open-ended) and would therefore be expected to be more volatile and more discounted in the early years. Though Futcoins provide a means to gain from volatility trading, their real use is in monitoring the progress toward the Causes and in forcing the pace of change. Endowed as they are with the power to judge the future, Futcoins may be attached to opinions and suggestions concerning the Cause, to force their cognizance by the Administration/Government. Futcoins price at par (as computed when the Divisia Index attains its design-maximum) when the Cause Bonds attain outcomes as envisaged at issue. Should the underlying policy or program focused on the achievement of the Cause be deficient, FutCoins would lose value and be priced at a further discount to their face-value reflecting the lower probability of achieving the cause, and indeed, anticipating a smaller future.

The concepts underlying Cause Bonds and Futcoins apply directly to the purpose of this blog - that of offering a credible alternative to the corrupt and unrepresentative electoral and governance system that plagues us. Created as an online, uniquely-numbered currency, Futcoins serve as a convenient carrier-instrument for Citizens to assign/repose
'Judge keys' with those whom they consider experts or otherwise appropriate to judge matters concerning the Causes. Put differently, the core idea is that Futcoins created upon broad-based, multi-decade (rolling) Cause Bonds could be distributed across all voting-age Citizens, who then repose their 'Judge keys' with various Democratic and Special interests to whom they assign their Futcoins, and thus force political parties to be answerable to experts and citizen-interest groups in the society.

Consider a long-run national strategy in which the Lokpal, cognizant of the needs, fears, concerns and aspirations of the people, moves the Supreme Court to direct the RBI to issue a pair of long, outcome-indexed Cause Bonds - Sovereign Democracy Bonds and Closed Cycle Bonds, of equal duration. Indexed to aggregate macro-variables, these indices may be achieved in multiple ways consistent with people's choices and industry preferences. The Lokpal subscribes to the Bonds with liquidity created by the RBI through a 'Sustainability FV QE Share - Sovereign Fund CC Mirror QE Share'. The former is but the creation of new money from the Group Sustainable FV pot, whereas the latter is the rupee mirror of the value of dollar-denominated CC assets in the portfolio of the Nation's Sovereign fund (alternatively, the 'Friend Reciprocate funds' that foreign nations channel to appreciate our sovereign investments in their capital markets). The Sovereign Democracy Bonds focus upon social and sovereign causes as registered by the Lokpal from polling citizens. The Sovereign Closed-cycle Bonds oblige the issuer to support technological progress to obtain improvements in material, and energy-efficiency along with related causes. Together, this pair of zero-coupon, outcome-indexed Cause Bonds, represent the society's expectations in both equity and efficiency spheres. Revenue from the issue of these Cause Bonds are routed to the Government which applies it to programs directed at achieving its objectives.

Next, the Lokpal determines what an appropriate indicative return is for Cause Bonds to appreciate over the decades. That return is determined by the importance of the Causes to the Nation and its citizens. It does not compete against other financial instruments in the capital markets. As the owner and holder of the Cause Bonds, the Lokpal approaches the Supreme court to direct the Mint to issue Futcoins against the Paired Cause Bonds. The Mint issues to the Lokpal serially-numbered Futcoins, of year the maturity date of the Cause Bonds, and equal in aggregate the expected terminal net appreciation in the underlying bonds. In turn, the Lokpal, anticipating General elections, and deeming the Futcoins non-transferable, distributes them serially and equally across qualified voters with instruction to assign the same, come election day, amongst the pre-approved list of qualified DIs/NPOs/SIs. (Citizens, if experts or experienced, and with proper Status and Diligences, may also stake their professional influence in policy making by attaching Futcoins to their opinions / views / perspectives / comments, even strictures submitted to the Government concerning the Cause)

The Cause-Bonds themselves are re-valued through the Divisia index at some periodic, albeit infrequent-interval. The change in NAV triggers a re-evaluation of Futcoin value as well. In essence, Futcoins that were priced upon speculatory presumptions between the periodic evaluations, find real ground to re-base themselves in the light of new information from the Divisia indices about the progress toward the achievement of the Causes. Thus, Futcoin premiums and discounts reflect the pace and probability of achieving the Cause. They serve to signal the same and trigger appropriate corrective responses within and outside the Government/Administration.

Red-Letter Day@the Ballot Box
With serially-numbered Futcoins in their possession, Citizens log in to the Lokpal's Futcoin Democracy website a month in advance of elections, where they find an exhaustive and classified list of Democratic interests, DIs, Non-Profit Organizations, NPOs, and Special Interest organisations, SIs. These entities potentially include such public and private institutions and organizations as the Supreme/High Court, Corruption watch-dogs, Labor Unions, Student/Women's interest organizations, Consumer Unions and Consumer Organizations, Capital markets organizations, Insurance Houses, Environment/Health/Safety organizations, Social organizations, and indeed, Political parties – to name a few. Voters, post establishing identity and related online formalities, browse the list of DIs/NPOs/SIs, and apportion
online the Lokpal-issued Futcoins across organisations and entities of their informed choice. They may, at all times, print a PDF copy of their interim choices. The final pdf-print lists the Futcoin recipients along with the serial number of futcoin assignments. It includes a photo-image of the Citizen along with details of Session numbers, IP addresses, and revisions. Citizens deposit the 'Ballot-box PDF-print copy' of their final Futcoin apportionment in to the ballot box on Election Day, with or without an additional vote. It'd however be necessary to deposit the copy of the PDF-print in the Ballot box to trigger the vote and validate the assignments. Post the election, a software collates Futcoin assignments to the various listed DIs/NGOs/SIs. The Chief of the Election Commission then turns over the Voter-ID stripped Futcoin assignment database over to the assigned DIs/NGOs/SIs.

Government Formation in Futcoin Democracy
With Futcoins assigned to the various Democratic, Non-profit and Special-interest groups, the onus shifts upon Political parties to create a 'Governance Circle' comprised of those entities with significant Futcoin
inventories. Clearly, the constitution of the Governance Circle determines the manner in which the Peoples' mandate is 'PV Hastened' for the Government to implement. In fact, the relative strengths and strategies of members of the Governance Circle, along with multiple economic game plans, might well offer alternative political configurations and alignments for the formation of the Government. Given the Futcoins endow the owner/holder/assignee with the power to judge, the Governance coalition with the economic strategy that secures the most number of Futcoins, wins the right to form the Government and administer the mandate of the people.

When contentious debates force a Futcoin-faceoff to pass significant Cause-related measures, the Government may, at its discretion invite eminent experts or non-partisan DIs/NPOs/SIs to participate in legislative proceedings with their deciding Futcoin vote. Futcoins also promote internal party meritocracy. Futcoins vested with, or bought away by Political parties, could be assigned unequally across party members in the Legislature anticipating Futcoin-based voting on any issue. Such internal re-assignment of Futcoins permits the party to emphasize member experience, expertise or compatibility with party position in legislative debates and votes. Elsewhere, Parties favoured with electoral success will typically have a lesser value for Democracy Futcoins. An election with a mixed verdict, predictably, would increase the premiums on Futcoins, as also the election of dynastic or non-representative leaders in elections characterized by 'sympathy waves' or 'vengeance votes'.

While the proposed system might stimulate horse-trading of Futcoins at the time of formation of the Government or when passing major legislative initiatives, it also provides stakeholders and interest groups an opportunity to participate constructively and formulate alliances that concentrate authority and therefore engender political stability. Post its term, the Government (and the Governance Circle), having pursued the interests of the people, turns in its stash of Futcoins to the Lokpal who recommends for, or against their monetization in line with his judgement of the Government, its policies and performance. When and eventually, the Cause Bonds mature, the Treasury returns the principal to the Lokpal, who, in turn, transfers the same over to the RBI for expanding the liquidity base of the economy that is now larger and better for achievement of the Causes for which the bonds were originally issued.

Fut(coin) the Bill !
To re-cap, Futcoin Democracy is no one-stop panacea to the many ills that plague our electoral and governance systems. Indeed the malaise is deeper. It is however a half-step forward in the direction of offering citizens a real choice at the ballot box beyond turning in all their endorsements in favor of one representative of one political party to the exclusion of all other well-meaning democratic-, social-, and special interests. Futcoin-based democracy is grounded in real Causes, real Finance and real Authority. It is a transparent, online system that lends itself to easy, fast and early adoption. Futcoins trade-off across time, space and issues at various nodes of the democratic social and polity. By involving the many interest groups, Futcoin-based voting facilitates ground-up participative democracy that decentralizes decision-making. It is, however, the incentives engendered under the Futcoin Democracy that are worth taking note of. Foremost, Political parties are likely to clean up their act due the decentralization of distribution of the 'power to decide', and the competition for Futcoins that it engenders. The various other entities too, in the race for Futcoins, improve their internal governance, sharpen their expertise, and re-orient themselves to better focus on Citizen concerns. The creation of a Governance Circle breaks the hegemony of Political parties on the Government. The inclusion of citizen-favored non-political Democratic interests, Non-profits and Special-Interest organizations in to the Governance Circle broad-bases and strengthens the pillars of democracy, and furthers a forward-looking, sustainable and inclusive democracy.